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Klimatické změny vinou lidstva ve starověku a dnes

O tech tech kauzalnich vztazich mezi lidskou cinosti a zmenami podnebi pises dost presvedcene...tedy neverim ze tvurci tech teorii a vedci provadejici tento vyzkum sou si tim jisti tak jako vyzniva z tohdle clanku

jinak co se tyce tech fosilnich paliv - za dobu trvani technice revoluce sme jich spalili zdaleka ne polovinu (dokonce i klasicke snadno tezitelne ropy jsme pred pulkou), a vetsina na spaleni jeste ceka. I kdyz je tedy pravdepodobne ze to pude moderni civilizaci mnohem rychleji nez slo doted, u CO2 jde o celkovy uhrn.

Co se tyce oteplovani - Nejak automaticky se prepodpoklada ze zmena klimatu je negativni. Je sice pochopitelne ze soucasna hospodarska soustava je adaptovana na soucasne rozlozeni klimatu, ale neni nepravdepodobne ze po nezbytnych investicich by se dalo na oteplovani vydelat. Ale jiste neda li se konkretni dopad priliz predvidat je lidskou prirozenosti spise obavat se nebezpeci nez tesit se na vyhody.

[1] Díky za zajímavý pohled na problematiku. Píšu přesvědčeně, protože si myslím, že pro populární článek je vhodné zaujmout jednoznačnější stanovisko, ale zároveň upozorňuji na zřejmé vady teorie. Např. pokles koncentrace metanu v letech 1000 - 1700, nelze doložit mi známými historickými skutečnostmi. Také malá doba ledová začala již před Kolumbem. Vědci dozajista budou opatrnější, ale pro tiskové zprávy používají silnější výrazy, aby je vůbec někdo publikoval a já jsem tím "načichnul".

S průmyslovou revolucí máš samozřejmě pravdu. Emise CO2 v průběhu posledních staletí rostly velmi přibližně exponenciálně viz http://gnosis9.net/ko_nadluh2.html a v posledních asi dvaceti letech lineárně. Podle toho pořádná průmyslová revoluce začala v 19. století.

Důsledky oteplování na globální ekonomiku nelze dost dobře předvídat, protože, jak říkáš, sami nevíme, jak se projeví. Z krátkodobého hlediska poslední dva roky na glob. otep. nadávám, protože jsou chladná léta, předtím se mi líbilo, protože byla velmi teplá. Ale z dlouhodobého hlediska to neznamená vůbec nic; obdobně jako počet hurikánů či povodní.

Překvapil mě ten původ metanu v nedokonalém spalování, doteď jsem žil v domění že se jedná hlavně o "bioprodukt" pocházející kromě bahenních plynů z trávicího traktu dobytka.

[3] Ano, hlavním zdrojem metanu je zemědělství a bakterie, nikoliv nedokonalé spalování.

[4] no právě proto mě zaráží ta zmínka, že pokles koncentrace kolem roku 1500-1600 je způsoben nevypalováním lesů v důsledku vymření populace.

[5] Já to chápu tak, že tehdy bylo mnohem méně zemědělských zvířat a ploch než dnes, a proto nevypalování lesů mělo zaznamenatelný vliv. Přesná data nemám k dispozici.

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